The Coronacene is the Post-COVID 19 Era, Year I A.D.
The confinement imposed on developed countries since mid-March was preceded by a 30% crash in the stock markets, the same crash that happened with the 1917 flu; at that time the stock markets recovered (comfortably) in two years, which is the period foreseen for COVID 19, but curiously there is a capital market that has recovered not in two years but in two months, this stock market is called NASDAQ and includes technology companies: telecommunications, software, biotechnology,... And this gives us a hint of what will be the post-COVID 19 Era, the post-coronavirus, the Year I A. D.C. (After the Coronavirus), or whatever we want to call it.
Technology has become even more relevant
During confinement we have become even more digital, and everything points to the fact that we will continue to be so in the post-coronavirus, and that is reflected in the value of companies because investors are bettors in a horse race, if bettors try to guess which animal will reach the finish line first investors try to predict which company will generate more profit.
One of these companies: Zoom, simply a videoconferencing tool that is just over two years old and of which most mortals had not heard anything, because Zoom is already worth more on the stock market than the sum of the ten largest airlines in the world because investors believe it will generate more profits than the sum of all of them. Zoom is now worth 30% less than what Facebook was worth when it went public in what was the largest public offering of a technology company in history.
Things happen fast, very fast
The H1N1 pandemic of 1917-1918, unjustly called the Spanish flu, mostly because it came out of Fort Riley - Texas, caused the value of the American stock market to fall by a third, something similar to what happened in this COVID 19. This fall in the value of companies took two years to recover because the level of June 1917 was not reached again until June 1919.
In 2020, the recovery is accelerating
If in 1917 the stock market took two years to recover its value in 2020 and in little more than two months it has already reversed more than half of the loss, but also because in recent days the stock market is already discounting the end of the pandemic, or perhaps the vaccine of COVID 19. The fact is that the economy wakes up fast but just as there will be many beneficiaries who will emerge stronger there will be many who lose, and many who fall.
...and even more in technology
When we look at the technology index par excellence, the NASDAQ-100, in two months it has already recovered and returned to all-time highs. Zoom that is worth three times more than before COVID 19 and this gives food for thought about the change we have already experienced.
Technology is no longer an option but something transversal, something that permeates all layers of society, something that connects us, that makes us more productive because in these months we have all experienced the increased productivity of meetings where we went straight to the point, where no one was late and where there was no room for trivial or personal matters. In exchange we have lost proximity, affection, humanity, but I am convinced that we will recover it with time because it is not technology that alienates us but the use we make of it.
eWorking: Urbanization may be reversed
The process of urbanization is the progressive concentration in the city of the population and its economic activities, if this process started with the first industrial revolution during the last 100 years has been unstoppable and constant but these three months many people have tried what it is to work from home, and may no longer want to return to the office, or maybe your company is no longer interested in being so long in it. Big cities are more expensive and in many cases offer a worse quality of life and there are well communicated centers with a multitude of services that can compete to recover population.
In short, the digitization of many jobs may cause urbanization to turn back, in fact the first signs are already beginning to be noticed in the furniture sector, although it will take time to confirm this.
Flexible, efficient, meaningful, diverse and meaningful education for people is digital education are, according to Juan Freirelearning processes that use digital tools: content, platforms and communities for active learning. We will no longer be installed in the videoconference classroom, but we will live a physical paradigm installed on a digital support.
In the digital environment, physical references are lost, so accompaniment is even more important than in the physical environment. The figure of the mentor is key and we have only begun to glimpse the change. In these months classes have been clumsily replaced by videoconferences, but soon we will see how the physical experience will be truly digitized.
Uncertainty is at its peak in a traditionally stable sector when we do not know whether students will have to start the course going to class only on alternate days in order to depopulate the classrooms. In addition, there are old demands of the sector such as the need to give autonomy to students or to reform a nineteenth-century evaluation system that need to be urgently addressed, and that this pandemic-like shock is likely to accelerate their solution.
eCommerce has been adopted 20 times faster
If when you start working from home you feel less and less like going back to the office, the same happens when you shop from home, and there were also many people who had not tried it but have already tried it. The important thing is not that eCommerces like PcComponents or Hawaianas have multiplied their sales by 4 or more compared to 2019. What is important is that many people who did not buy online have started to do so, have overcome their resistance and are likely to repeat.
There are sectors such as online grocery where there have been more new customers than regulars, and many of these will recur, and watch out because grocery is a sector that is being left uncovered after the failures of Alice or Amazon Pantry, but yours truly still believes that someone will one day win the grocery eCommerce with a creative logistics solution and then we will all regret not having done it ourselves sooner.
If 9/11 shook the world, the Coronavirus will give it a 360º turn.